A new national poll from Emerson College has folks in the political class whispering about what many conservatives already suspect: Vice President J.D. Vance may be the GOP’s next best hope after Donald Trump—and the numbers back it up.
The poll, conducted July 21–22 among 1,400 registered voters, shows Vance edging out three top Democrats in hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups. It’s still early—absurdly early, in fact—but these numbers offer a compelling peek into where things could be headed. And they spell trouble for the left.
First, Vance leads former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg 44 percent to 43 percent, with 13 percent undecided. Not exactly a blowout, but let’s be honest—Buttigieg hasn’t exactly dazzled in the spotlight. From the supply chain fiasco to the East Palestine train derailment, Pete’s résumé reads more like a case study in bureaucratic failure than presidential leadership. The fact that Vance is already ahead despite being relatively new to the national stage speaks volumes.
Next up: progressive darling Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Vance tops her 44 percent to 41 percent, with 15 percent undecided. That’s significant. While the left loves to elevate AOC as some sort of Gen Z savior, the majority of the country isn’t buying what she’s selling. Her brand of aggressive, big-government socialism might play well in Brooklyn, but in middle America? Not so much.
Then there’s California Gov. Gavin Newsom, the poster child for elite liberal governance. Vance bests him too—45 percent to 42 percent, with 13 percent undecided. Newsom’s political brand is a slick combination of polished speeches and disastrous policies. California’s exodus of businesses, out-of-control homelessness, and sky-high taxes aren’t exactly a winning pitch for the Rust Belt.
While these margins may seem modest, they’re all trending in one direction: J.D. Vance is in a strong position. And with 13 to 15 percent of voters still undecided, the ground is fertile for the kind of retail politics and straight-talk conservatism Vance thrives on.
Of course, it’s far too soon to anoint a Republican nominee. A handful of potential contenders could still shake up the primary if Vance runs. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Secretary of State Marco Rubio, or even a successful outsider from the business world might jump into the ring. But none of that changes the fact that Vance is already carrying the mantle of the America First movement with clarity and conviction.
Meanwhile, the poll also shows former President Donald Trump’s approval stabilizing in the mid-40s. For someone who’s been relentlessly attacked from every possible angle—media, legal, and political—that’s not bad at all. In fact, it’s remarkable. Trump’s strongest issue remains immigration, where he sits at 45 percent approval to 46 percent disapproval—a near tie that shows the nation is still divided but willing to back his firm stance on border security.
As for Congress, the 2026 midterm ballot test shows Democrats with a narrow lead—44 percent to 42 percent—with 14 percent undecided. This isn’t the kind of cushion Democrats were hoping for, especially considering the historical trend that favors the party out of power. If Republicans can rally around strong candidates and unify behind clear, common-sense priorities, that 14 percent is absolutely within reach.
Motivation among voters is also sky-high: 62 percent say they’re “extremely motivated” to vote in the midterms. That’s good news for both sides, but Republicans have a distinct advantage when voters are paying attention. The more Americans see of Bidenomics, culture wars, and international blundering, the more they remember why they voted red in the first place.
Still, a word of caution: polls are snapshots, not prophecies. Emerson’s own track record reminds us of this. Back in 2016, the same polling outfit predicted a massive 323–215 electoral college win for Hillary Clinton. We all remember how that turned out—President Trump shocked the establishment, the pollsters, and most importantly, the Democrats.
So while these numbers offer a promising glimpse of what could come, conservatives should stay focused, stay engaged, and stay skeptical of any narrative the media tries to sell us wholesale.
Because in the end, it’s not about polls—it’s about people. And the American people are clearly hungry for leadership rooted in reality, not fantasy. If J.D. Vance continues to resonate with voters who are tired of elite posturing and progressive overreach, he may just be the one to carry the torch in 2028.
