If you thought the 2024 election was the main event, buckle up — the 2028 race is already heating up. And if recent Emerson College polling is any indicator, things are looking rock-solid for Vice President J.D. Vance and predictably chaotic for a Democratic Party that still hasn’t figured out what it stands for — other than “not Trump.”
According to a new Emerson survey released Friday, Vance is now the runaway favorite among GOP voters. Among 416 likely Republican primary voters, he secured 46% of the vote in a crowded field. His nearest competition, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is stuck at 12%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 9%. No other candidate — including names like Nikki Haley and Kristi Noem — even cracked double digits.
Compare that to last November, when Vance led the same poll at 30%, and it’s clear his standing has solidified. As Spencer Kimball of Emerson noted, the vice president now commands the support of 52% of male Republican voters and a commanding lead among those over 60. Translation: this isn’t just name recognition — this is momentum.
Meanwhile, over on the blue team, things are — well, a mess.
The Democratic field is led, surprisingly, by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who sits at a modest 16%. Vice President Kamala Harris — who just four years ago was the face of the party — has fallen to second place at 13%. California Gov. Gavin Newsom trails closely behind at 12%, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro tied at 7%.
But the real headline? A staggering 23% of Democratic voters are still undecided.
That’s not just a sign of healthy competition — that’s a red flag. Especially when you consider that back in November, Harris led the same poll with 37%. She’s since lost nearly two-thirds of her support, which is saying something for a sitting VP who should, by all accounts, be the presumed nominee.
Of course, Democratic defenders will argue it’s early, and the midterms haven’t even fully played out. But politics today moves fast. The second one election ends, the next begins. Democrats are entering a critical stage with no clear frontrunner, no unifying message, and a bench that ranges from bland to bombastic.
Buttigieg? His charisma is about as electrifying as a glass of lukewarm skim milk. Newsom? His national profile is overshadowed by riots in Los Angeles and his performative responses that please no one. AOC? She’s got Twitter locked down, but good luck convincing swing-state voters she’s presidential material. And Shapiro? He’s just not Tim Walz — that’s about all he’s got going for him.
Kamala Harris, once the presumed heir to the Biden legacy, now appears adrift — reportedly considering a run for California governor, perhaps as a graceful exit from a presidential campaign she can’t win. Democrats might secretly be hoping she goes through with it.
On the Republican side, the contrast couldn’t be clearer. Vance offers what many call “Trumpism without Trump” — the same America First principles, minus the constant media circus. His image as a stabilizing force in Washington has grown since 2024, and voters seem to be responding.
That’s bad news for Democrats hoping to build off Biden’s 2020 and 2024 coalitions. In a hypothetical generic ballot, both parties currently poll at 42%. But recent history has shown the GOP doesn’t need the popular vote to win the Electoral College — it just needs momentum in the right places. And right now, Vance is riding that momentum hard.
It’s still early, but if this is a preview of 2028, the Democrats better find a message — and a candidate — fast. Otherwise, they’ll be spending the next few years figuring out how to lose three presidential elections in a row.
